Publish or Stagnate? Dynamics of Scientific Production on Ableism in Brazil (2000–2024) After the Brazilian Inclusion Law

Abstract

The scientific production related to ableism in Brazil presents a trajectory marked by advances and periods of stagnation. Despite the growing relevance of the topic, driven by the Brazilian Inclusion Law, there is a lack of longitudinal analyses to elucidate the evolution of this field. This study investigated the dynamics of research on ableism in Brazil (2000-2024) through a bibliometric analysis of 50,027 articles from the SciELO database (descriptors: "ableism OR inclusive education OR school inclusion OR disability"). Descriptive statistics, the Chow test, and the Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) were used. A biphasic pattern was identified: exponential growth until 2018 (CAGR +10.12%), coinciding with the consolidation of the Brazilian Inclusion Law, followed by a decline (CAGR -2.89%). This unexpected decline, after a cumulative increase of 304%, suggests a possible exhaustion of conventional approaches and the saturation of a research cycle initially stimulated by legislation. The findings indicate an urgent need to (1) reorient research agendas towards emerging aspects such as digital ableism and intersectionality; (2) subsidize evidence-based scientific and inclusion policies; and (3) foster new theoretical frameworks to overcome the apparent stagnation in the field. Understanding this uneven development over time is crucial for advancing disability studies and for the effective implementation of inclusive public policies in the country.